PLa Quiniela odd

It consists of predicting the outcome of a soccer match between 2 teams on 3 options.

The price of each bet is 0.75 euros. Each bet is made up of a set of 14 predictions. The minimum is 1 euro, being this the price of 2 bets.

In La Quiniela, 55% of the proceeds are destined to prizes, this amount being distributed among five categories plus the special category.

In the betting pools, if we make a simple bet, we have to face 3 raised to the 14 possible cases, since in each of the fourteen matches we have three possible results: 1, X, 2. Therefore, we must divide our bet (1) between all the possibilities (3 14), so that to win the full bet there is a probability of 1 in almost 5 million, if we play without taking into account that some results are more likely than others, due to the differences between the soccer teams in play.

Quiniela: 14 Hits

The possible results are:

For a match

P1: 1 x 2 (3 possible results)

For two matches,

P1: 1 x 2 1 x 2 1 x 2

P2: 1 1 1 x x x 2 2 2 (9 = 3 2 possible results)

For three matchess,

P1: 1 x 2 1 x 2 1 x 2 1 x 2 1 x 2 1 x 2 1 x 2 1 x 2 1 x 2

P2: 1 1 1 x x x 2 2 2 1 1 1 x x x 2 2 2 1 1 1 x x x 2 2 2

P3: 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 x x x x x x x x x 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 (27 = 3 3 possible results)

Obviously, the betting community [1-x-1] corresponding to matches P1-P2-P3 is different from [x-1-1].
A Quiniela of 14 matches will be of the form: [1-x-2-1-1-1-1-1-x-1-2-2-x-1-2-1-1-2-2], i.e., this ticket is a variation with repetition of 3 elements taken 14 by 14. The number of possible combinations of the same is:

V 3,14 = 3^14 = 4.782.969

Therefore, at least in theory, the probability that one of them will be the winning one is 1/(3^14) = 0.0000002

On the other hand, the number of possible combinations to win the first prize, i.e. the full 15, would be:

3^15 = 14.348.907

Therefore, at least in theory, the probability that one of them will be the winning one is 1/(3^15) = 0.000000069