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Friday, 14 june 2024


Odds of winning El Niño

The 'El Niño' draw traditionally has a reputation for winning more and in fact, statistically, this is true.

This is so because in the Christmas and Primitiva lotteries 10% is dedicated to the draw, while in the 'Niño' lottery and the weekly lotteries almost 30% is destined. That is to say, of the 70% that is distributed of the collected, in Christmas 60% goes to prizes, while in the 'Niño' the amount destined to the draw is tripled, and therefore, a greater number of players at least receive a minimum refund. Given this prize structure, the probabilities of winning something are much more favorable in the case of El Niño.

In the Extraordinary Draw of El Niño, 45 series of 100,000 tickets (from the number 00000 to 99,999) are currently in play, of which there will be 17,064,000 winning tickets. Taking into account that in total 100,000 - 10 - 45 = 45,000,000,000 tickets are sold, the probability that our tenth ticket obtains some prize is the following one:

P(prize) = 17.064.000/45.000.000 = 0,3792 (37,92%)

Thus, for example, if we play a lottery ticket in the El Niño Draw, the probability of winning the jackpot of 2,000,000 € ("el niño") is 1 in 100,000 (1 divided by the numbers of a series because all series have the same prizes).

P(gordo) = 1/100.000 = 0,00001 (0,001%)

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